Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Extends Losses

TTF front month has extended its losses throughout the day amid weaker heating demand due to a mild start to October, while EU gas storage is over 95% of full.

• TTF NOV 23 down -7.3% at 38.79€/MWh
• Norwegian natural gas outages are scheduled to peak on Wednesday, before easing back. In France, the Dunkerque and Fos Cavaou LNG terminals returned from maintenance.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated up at 276.5mcm/d. Gassco has not yet updated any outage schedules today.
• European natural gas storage is up to 95.42% full on 30 Sep according to GIE data compared to the five-year average of 87.4%. Net injection rates had dropped to almost nothing at the peak of the Norwegian maintenance season in mid-September but have since recovered back to around 18.9% below the five-year average last week. Net injections averaged about 1,656GWh/d in the week to 30 Sep compared to the five-year average for the period of just over 2,040GWh/d.
• The latest weather forecast is still showing above normal temperatures across Europe throughout the next two weeks although with a dip slightly cooler later this week and with the risk of near normal towards the middle of October.
• Extraction from the Groningen gas field in the northeastern Netherlands has stopped as of 1 October, after ministers gave final approval following a decision in June.
• LNG sendout to Europe was at 267mcm/d on 30 Sep and roughly in line with the average seen over the last couple of weeks. Flows are below levels seen this time last year with warm weather limiting demand at the start of the winter season while LNG volumes at sea continue to increase.
• LNG supply to Europe and Turkey fell to the lowest in 21 months in September although last week supplies increased 2% on the week according to Montel citing Kpler data.
• The unfavourable arbitrage economics for Atlantic cargoes to move to APAC has restricted inter-basin flows and is hindering Asian buyers’ ability to utilize spot supply in the winter, according to Platts.
• US sanctions on the use of Russian transshipment terminals for LNG are creating logistical difficulties for Japan’s planned deliveries from the facilities, Daisuke Harada, director of JOGMEC, said.