Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Recovers Last Week’s Losses

TTF front month rose to the highest level since 25 September to €44.615/MWh, although has since softened. The gas market is supported by a suspected leak in the undersea Baltic pipeline between Finland and Estonia after a drop in pressure, rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions and the restart of industrial action at Australian LNG facilities next week.

• TTF NOV 23 up 13.6% at 43.45€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 8% at 48.76€/MWh
• In light of the current tension in Israel, Chevron has been instructed by Israel’s Ministry of Energy to shut down the production at the Tamar Production platform, the firm said.
• The Finland, Estonia undersea Baltic connector gas pipeline was taken out of service on 8 October due to a suspected leak, according to Gasgrid Finland and Estonian gas TSO Elering.
• Union workers at Chevron’s LNG sites in Australia gave notice on Monday to resume strike action on 19 October, while Chevron has asked Australia's industrial tribunal to help resolve a small number of issues blocking a deal with unions according to Chevron, cited by Reuters.
• The latest weather forecast shows temperatures across NW Europe holding above normal this week before cooling from the middle of the month back to near normal.
• Norwegian natural gas flows to Europe were nominated today at 289mcm/d, still below the five-year average for this time of the year amid a prolonged maintenance period according to Gassco.
• European natural gas storage levels are gaining back towards the five year range highs up to 96.87% full on 7 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 88.5%. Net injections have increased slightly in the last week and in line with average rates from the previous five years. Net injections averaged about 1,799GWh/d in the week to 7 Oct compared to the five year average for the period of just under 1,820GWh/d.
• Winter European gas markets remain finely balanced and prone to volatility despite storage levels 96% full and around 2bcm available from gas stored in Ukraine according to Wood Mackenzie.
• LNG sendout to Europe is today estimated at 277mcm/d compared to an average of around 300mcm/d over the last week.
• Global LNG imports are forecast to rise by 2% month on month in October to 31.3mn tons. This is up by 1% year on year according to BNEF.