Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Rises

TTF has regained some ground on the day and is up around 4.3% since the start of the week. The increase is driven by heightened LNG supply risks amid Middle East tension, and an expected ramping up of gas demand from late next week amid colder weather.

• TTF MAR 24 up 1% at 29.29€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 0% at 29.9€/MWh
• Temperatures in most of Europe are expected to remain mild in the coming week although are forecast to fall back to near or slightly below normal during the second week of the outlook.
• Nominations for Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are unchanged from yesterday at 346.6mcm/d and in line with the average seen in January.
• European natural gas storage was at 70.17 full on Jan 31 according to GIE data.
• LNG imports into Europe and Turkey were 4.9% down month on month from 15.8bcm to 15bcm in January according to preliminary Kpler data.
• Japanese LNG imports stood at just below 6mn tons in January, the lowest level for any January since 2009.
• US LNG exports fell nearly 5% from 8.7 m metric tons in December to 8.3m metric tons in January according to LSEG data with weaker exports set to continue into February.
• Approximately 250mtpa of incremental global supply is due online between now and 2030 according to the central case by Timera Energy including 98mtpa of permitted US supply.
• The Biden administration’s decision to pause new LNG export licenses will slow efforts to reduce climate-damaging emissions and is “a mistake” according to Exxon Mobil Corp via Bloomberg.
• Upcoming maintenance at Brazil’s Rota 1 offshore gas pipeline could boost support for LNG imports, according to Platts.