Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Slides

TTF front is headed for its lowest closing level since 6 October. Prices have been weighed on by muted demand due to above average weather and an abundance of LNG, with floating storage levels still well above the five-year average.

• TTF JAN 24 down -4.8% at 38.2€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -5.1% at 38.42€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to rise above normal from Dec 8 and the warm weather is currently expected to remain until the end of the two-week forecast period.
• European electricity demand is likely to remain below pre-energy crisis levels for at least another two years according to Moody’s via Montel.
• Pipeline supplies into Europe from Norway have dipped today to 342.8mcm/d amid planned outages at the Dvalin field this week.
• European natural gas withdrawal rates are holding just above normal to take total storage down to 93.9% full on Dec 3 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 83.6%.
• European LNG sendout was at 417mcm/d on Dec 3 compared to an average of 447mcm/d in the previous week.
• Summer 2024 pricing is expected above 2023 levels given current weather forecasts and storage modelling according to RBC Europe Ltd.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days decreased by 0.4% last week to 4.07mn tons as of 3 December, according to Bloomberg estimates.
• The LNG vessel Symphonic Breeze was flagged by ICIS as signaling for Australia’s Prelude a couple of weeks ago, which it said at the time could have been indicating its imminent startup but now is unclear.