Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Tracking Up

TTF markets are tracking higher with supply risks set against relatively unchanged near-term market fundamentals - high storage levels and continued mild temperatures for most of Europe. Front month TTF is currently down around 3 €/MWh on the previous week’s close.

• TTF NOV 23 up 1.5% at 50.94€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 1% at 57.3€/MWh
• Above normal temperatures in NW and central Europe in the coming week are expected to gradually drift back towards normal in the second week of the forecast and into the start of November. Nordic region will however remain colder than normal.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are back up to 313.3mcm/d. Oseberg posted a new gas unavailability 25.5mcm/d on 20-22 October and for 20.5mcm/d from 22-23 October.
• European natural gas storage edged just slightly higher yesterday up to 98.14% full on 18 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 89.6%.
• Total European LNG sendout was slightly lower on the day at 306mcm/d on 18 Oct according to Bloomberg and roughly in line with the average seen so far this month.
• Natural gas import supplies to Europe have continued to recover this month according to Bruegel data release earlier this week as the prolonged seasonal maintenance in Norway gradually comes towards an end and LNG supply rises.
• Egypt so far this month exported just two LNG cargoes, ship-tracking data showed, supporting concerns that the restart of Egyptian LNG flows might be hampered by lower gas pipeline supplies from Israel due to due closure of the 10bcm/yr Tamar gas field and the EMG gas pipeline.
• The agreement between China’s CNPC and Gazprom for additional gas pipeline imports for the remainder of this year through the Power of Siberia 1 pipeline could free some global LNG cargoes for the remainder of this year according to BNEF.
• Natural gas production in Azerbaijan is projected to be 48.7 bcm in 2023, according to Interfax reporting comments from Azeri Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov.
• The total demand for Azeri gas into Europe is exceeding 30 bcm/y, according to Interfax, citing comments from Azerbaijani Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov.
• Finland’s FSRU at Inkoo is offering six regasification slots this winter, according to a statement by operator Gasgrid.
• Finland is investigating the role of a Hong Kong vessel in the damage to an underwater gas pipeline earlier this month as a heavy object was found, the Finnish police said, cited by Bloomberg.
• The start of exports from Indonesia’s Tangguh train 3 LNG project will mean global winter supply of LNG could increase by 12% compared to 2022, according to BNEF.