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Gasoline Crack Ease Lower Amid Demand Concerns

OIL PRODUCTS

Gasoline crack spreads continue to ease lower following the weak demand and US stock build shown in the weekly EIA data on Wednesday. US gasoline crack spreads have pulled back from a peak of nearly 42.4$/bbl on 28 July to 35$/bbl today.

  • The EIA four week average finished gasoline implied demand this week extended the decline seen over the last month and almost down to the low end of the previous five year range.
  • US summer gasoline demand has potentially already peaked according to GasBuddy last week although they see week-to-date (Sun-Thu) US gasoline demand data up 1.8% from last week and 2.0% above the four week average for the same time period.
  • China’s gasoline demand is set to peak two years earlier than expected in 2023 due to new EV sales according to Sinopec. EVs are expected to displace 15m tons on oil products this year.
  • China’s oil demand growth is expected to fall to 940kbpd in Q4 2023 compared to Q4 2022 according to CNPC.
    • RBOB SEP 23 up 0.7% at 2.78$/gal
    • EU Gasoline-Brent down -0.5$/bbl at 21.11$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down -0.2$/bbl at 34.94$/bbl
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