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GASOLINE: Europe Could Cut FCC Runs to Offset Lost Gasoline Exports: FGE

GASOLINE
Energy BulletsCEEMEABulletGlobalRegionCommodities

Europe could cut refinery runs and/or trim fluid catalytic cracker runs to offset an expected loss of its gasoline export market to West Africa, FGE said on Nov. 11 cited by Bloomberg.

  • The market will likely have to dis-incentivize FCC running at historical levels in 2025, likely via weak gasoline cracks.
  • “We already have 375k b/d of confirmed CDU shutdowns in Germany and the UK, which in theory would tighten the European gasoline balance by around 100k b/d.”
  • “However, we only expect this to result in a decline to gasoline supply of around 60k b/d over 2025, as the capacity will not have been running flat out, while we also expect other refineries to hike CDU throughput to offset some of the loss in middle distillates.”
  • A cut in FCC runs of 200kb/d could be required, assuming an FCC gasoline yield of only about 50%. This could add 200kb/d of low-sulfur residue components to the market which would be an additional 7% to global VLSFO supply.
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Europe could cut refinery runs and/or trim fluid catalytic cracker runs to offset an expected loss of its gasoline export market to West Africa, FGE said on Nov. 11 cited by Bloomberg.

  • The market will likely have to dis-incentivize FCC running at historical levels in 2025, likely via weak gasoline cracks.
  • “We already have 375k b/d of confirmed CDU shutdowns in Germany and the UK, which in theory would tighten the European gasoline balance by around 100k b/d.”
  • “However, we only expect this to result in a decline to gasoline supply of around 60k b/d over 2025, as the capacity will not have been running flat out, while we also expect other refineries to hike CDU throughput to offset some of the loss in middle distillates.”
  • A cut in FCC runs of 200kb/d could be required, assuming an FCC gasoline yield of only about 50%. This could add 200kb/d of low-sulfur residue components to the market which would be an additional 7% to global VLSFO supply.