Free Trial

GBP Markets Comfortably Off Thursday Extremes


SONIA futures are flat to -3.5 through the blues, with core global bond futures off yesterday’s highs.

  • BoE-dated OIS returns to familiar territory after yesterday’s volatility, showing 63bp of cuts for ’24 and nearly fully discounting the first 25bp rate cut come the end of the Aug ’24 MPC.
  • UK STIRs are comfortably off yesterday’s cycle extremes.
  • Fiscal speculation continues to dominate, with the latest report suggesting that Chancellor Hunt has ruled out a stamp duty cut re: the housing market, given inflationary risks.
  • Discussions surrounding incoming BoE Deputy Governor Lombardelli continue, with most pointing to hawkish risks given her previous work. We still see August as the most likely timing of the first rate cut.
  • Elsewhere, Nationwide house price data was firmer than expected, with the Y/Y reading moving back into positive territory for the first time since January ’23.
  • Final manufacturing PMI data and comments from BoE’s Pill are due on Friday.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.