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GBP Shows Strong Resilience, EURGBP Plumbs Fresh Year-to-Date Lows

GBP
  • Despite the greenback’s moderate strength on Friday, GBP has remained stubbornly bid to finish the week with cable consolidating yesterday’s breakout to the topside. GBPUSD made a break of key resistance at 1.2545 and the continued progress points to a stronger signal of a bottoming out of prices. 1.2592 is next up, a Fibonacci retracement which has capped the topside in today’s session with 1.2680 remaining the key topside level.
  • Perhaps more interesting is the cross, with EURGBP declining for four consecutive sessions and continuing to press to new YTD lows into the Friday close. The primary trend direction remains down, highlighted by a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
  • Furthermore, moving average studies also highlight a bearish condition - the 50-dma recently crossed below the 200-dma, confirming a death cross signal. The focus is on 0.8547 – which has been pierced - the Dec 1 2022 low and a key support. Below here, 0.8522 the Aug 30 2022 low comes into play before key medium term support at 0.8340.
  • UK employment data and GDP are scheduled for next week, both preceding the Fed and ECB decisions. UK CPI and the bank of England June decision fall on June 21/22 respectively.
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