April 29, 2024 06:51 GMT
GBP STIRs Fully Discount First BoE Cut Come September, A Little Over 40bp Through Year End
STIR
GBP STIRs are also little changed to start the week, with little cue from Asia given the Japanese holiday and weekend macro headline flow relatively light outside of Middle Eastern matters and JPY intervention speculation.
- Political headlines continue to dominate in the UK, although related weekend news flow won’t be market moving.
- That leaves ~43bp of BoE cuts priced through ’24, with the first 25bp step fully discounted through the Sep MPC and a little over 80% odds of a cut priced through the Aug meeting.
- Final PMI data headlines a limited local calendar this week.
- There is currently no BoE-speak scheduled ahead of next week's monetary policy decision.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| May-24 | 5.201 | +0.2 |
| Jun-24 | 5.113 | -8.7 |
| Aug-24 | 4.997 | -20.3 |
| Sep-24 | 4.935 | -26.4 |
| Nov-24 | 4.840 | -36.0 |
| Dec-24 | 4.772 | -42.8 |
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