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GDI Surprisingly Revised Lower Towards GDP In Q2

  • Minimal GDP revisions in the third Q2 release bely large downward revisions to real GDI, to the extent that the average of GDP and GDI now indicates a small recession in 1H22 (with -0.4% in Q1 and -0.3% in Q2, annualized).
  • Real GDI has been used by some FOMC members to push back on the GDP technical recession in 1H22, with Governor Waller looking for GDP to be revised up as the numbers are pulled back together as was the case in 2014.
  • However, so far, initial revisions have seen GDI lower, growing just 0.05% annualized in Q2 from the 1.35% initially thought and closer to GDP of -0.6%.

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