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GDP due at 7:00GMT


The December round of UK data is projected to show a weak end to Q4, with the economy expected to flatline on the quarter.

  • The Q4 preliminary GDP data due will be the main focus of today’s data, whereby consensus is expecting the UK economy to stagnate at 0.0% q/q, after -0.3% q/q in Q3. Consensus is currently looking for a -0.3% m/m decline for December after the +0.1% in November.
  • Due to the rounding effect on data, the ONS stated at the November data release that a decline of -0.5% m/m will be needed in December to drive the quarterly data into negative territory and confirm that the UK is in a technical recession.
  • Much may depend on how severely the cold snap, industrial disputes and slowing services impacted the economy. The BOE’s Q4 DMP survey signalled substantial plans to reduce investment in the year ahead, implying current investments are faltering.
  • For context, the BOE’s February MPR included a forecast of +0.1% q/q growth, a small uptick on Q3 largely reflecting a recovery following the Queen’s funeral.
  • The February meeting highlighted emphasis on data dependence in policy decisions and hinted that upside surprises to data could be needed for a 25bp hike.
  • A substantial upside surprise in Friday’s Q4 data could add to the probability of a 25bp hike at the March meet, but this would need to be a surprise to the BOE's forecast of 0.1%q/q rather than the consensus print of flat. However focus remains on service inflation, inflation expectations and wage growth.

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