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GERMAN DATA: GDP Fell for Second Consecutive Year in 2024

GERMAN DATA
Data BulletEurozoneGermanyCEEMEABulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

German GDP fell 0.1% Q/Q in Q4 2024 according to Destatis' preliminary estimate. That follows Q3's +0.1%, and brings total 2024 GDP growth to -0.2% Y/Y on a non-adjusted basis (in line with consensus, following -0.3% in 2023) and calendar-adjusted basis (-0.1% 2023).

  • As drivers behind the full-year contraction, Destatis cited "increasing competition for the German export industry in important sales markets, high energy costs, persistently high interest rates, but also an uncertain economic outlook".
  • Across gross value added by sector, manufacturing and construction stand out negatively at -3.0% and -3.8% Y/Y, respectively. Services was overall positive at +0.8%, underpinned by the "public services, healthcare, education" category at +1.6%.
  • Productivity was weak, with GDP per employee at -0.4% Y/Y (-1.0% 2023), and GDP per hour worked at -0.1% Y/Y (-0.6% 2023).
  • Final data containing more detail are to be released in the coming weeks.
  • For 2025, MNI's collation of sellside analysts stands at a median of +0.3% Y/Y - having been downwardly revised by 0.2pp during the last three months. 
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German GDP fell 0.1% Q/Q in Q4 2024 according to Destatis' preliminary estimate. That follows Q3's +0.1%, and brings total 2024 GDP growth to -0.2% Y/Y on a non-adjusted basis (in line with consensus, following -0.3% in 2023) and calendar-adjusted basis (-0.1% 2023).

  • As drivers behind the full-year contraction, Destatis cited "increasing competition for the German export industry in important sales markets, high energy costs, persistently high interest rates, but also an uncertain economic outlook".
  • Across gross value added by sector, manufacturing and construction stand out negatively at -3.0% and -3.8% Y/Y, respectively. Services was overall positive at +0.8%, underpinned by the "public services, healthcare, education" category at +1.6%.
  • Productivity was weak, with GDP per employee at -0.4% Y/Y (-1.0% 2023), and GDP per hour worked at -0.1% Y/Y (-0.6% 2023).
  • Final data containing more detail are to be released in the coming weeks.
  • For 2025, MNI's collation of sellside analysts stands at a median of +0.3% Y/Y - having been downwardly revised by 0.2pp during the last three months. 
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