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POLAND: GDP Growth Expected To Have Accelerated In 4Q24

POLAND
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market News

Statistics Poland will release flash Q4 GDP data at 09:00GMT/10:00CET, with most desks expecting it to exceed +3% Y/Y, based on their estimates derived from above-forecast data for the whole 2024. Bloomberg consensus is for a 3.3% Y/Y expansion.

  • BOS Bank see 4Q24 growth at +3.3% Y/Y, noting that the data for the whole 2024 implies a print in the range of +3.2%-3.5% Y/Y. They write that the flash estimate will not provide any new information except a precise estimate of 4Q24 growth and seasonally-adjusted quarterly growth.
  • Based on data for the whole 2024, Credit Agricole estimate that growth accelerated to +3.4%-3.6% Y/Y in 4Q24 from +2.7% in the previous quarter, with the caveat that there are no revisions to the readings for Q1-Q3. The acceleration was likely driven by firmer consumption, investments and net exports, in their view.
  • Pekao see 4Q24 growth at +3.2%-3.5% Y/Y and don't see much scope for surprises in the structure of growth. In their view, this would be a solid basis for an acceleration of growth to +4.0% Y/Y this year.
  • PKO expect 4Q24 GDP growth to print at +3.4% Y/Y, which they see as a product of a significant increase in consumption and a slower recovery in investments.
  • Santander write that 4Q24 GDP growth was likely in the +3.3%-3.7% Y/Y range, assuming the absence of revisions of Q1-Q3 outturns. They bet on the mid-point of this range (+3.5%), which would imply a seasonally-adjusted sequential growth of at least +1.5% Q/Q. They note that the structure of the data will only be revealed in the next publication on February 27.
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Statistics Poland will release flash Q4 GDP data at 09:00GMT/10:00CET, with most desks expecting it to exceed +3% Y/Y, based on their estimates derived from above-forecast data for the whole 2024. Bloomberg consensus is for a 3.3% Y/Y expansion.

  • BOS Bank see 4Q24 growth at +3.3% Y/Y, noting that the data for the whole 2024 implies a print in the range of +3.2%-3.5% Y/Y. They write that the flash estimate will not provide any new information except a precise estimate of 4Q24 growth and seasonally-adjusted quarterly growth.
  • Based on data for the whole 2024, Credit Agricole estimate that growth accelerated to +3.4%-3.6% Y/Y in 4Q24 from +2.7% in the previous quarter, with the caveat that there are no revisions to the readings for Q1-Q3. The acceleration was likely driven by firmer consumption, investments and net exports, in their view.
  • Pekao see 4Q24 growth at +3.2%-3.5% Y/Y and don't see much scope for surprises in the structure of growth. In their view, this would be a solid basis for an acceleration of growth to +4.0% Y/Y this year.
  • PKO expect 4Q24 GDP growth to print at +3.4% Y/Y, which they see as a product of a significant increase in consumption and a slower recovery in investments.
  • Santander write that 4Q24 GDP growth was likely in the +3.3%-3.7% Y/Y range, assuming the absence of revisions of Q1-Q3 outturns. They bet on the mid-point of this range (+3.5%), which would imply a seasonally-adjusted sequential growth of at least +1.5% Q/Q. They note that the structure of the data will only be revealed in the next publication on February 27.