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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA
- Canada GDP for May/Jun advance is released at 0830ET.
- Consensus sticks to the 0.1% M/M indicated by last month’s advance estimate, moderation after a strong 0.3% in April.
- It would yield 1.0% Y/Y in May whilst also leave a 3m/3m pace of 2.1% annualized.
- The BoC forecast GDP growth of 1.5% in Q2 before an acceleration to 2.8% in Q3 in last week’s MPR (but as always note there can be differences in the monthly industry data and the quarterly expenditure approach that the BoC forecasts).
- As for potential June readings, some analysts caution on a potential weak handoff to Q3 growth (see part two), of note with the BoC putting weight on growth accelerating to prevent a further build in excess supply.
- The July MPR saw potential output growth slowing from ~2.25% in 2024 to a “more modest” average of 2% over 2025 and 2026, reflecting changes in the inflow of non-permanent residents.
- BoC-dated OIS currently has ~22.5bps of cuts priced for September, i.e. eyeing strong odds of a third consecutive BoC cut. With Canadian jobs not landing until next Friday, it’s the main Canadian event of the week.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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