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Generally Solid Jobless Claims Data

US DATA
  • Initial claims were lower than expected at a seasonally adjusted 237k (cons 250k) in the week to Jul 8, i.e. one short of a payrolls reference week, following a marginally upward revised 249k (+1k).
  • It continues a volatile run but the four-week average has turned lower at 247k off a recent high of 257k.
  • There doesn’t appear anything untoward in the seasonal adjustment, with the step higher from 252k to 259k in the NSA data relatively small for the time of year.
  • The main increase on the week in the NSA data was led by NY (+8.2k to 26.6k), but that’s a seasonal normality.
  • Continuing claims meanwhile gave back some of last week’s better than expected report, increasing to a seasonally adjusted 1729k (cons 1720k) in the week to Jul 1 from 1718k (initially 1720k).
  • The level of continuing claims remains close to the 2019 average, and whilst NSA claims are higher than in 2022, they remain closer to levels for the time of year in more typical non-pandemic years.

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