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Geopol Risk, Mixed UofM Data Buoy Rates

US TSYS
  • Middle East conflict lent to Friday morning's risk-off/safe haven bid in US rates. Meanwhile, Russia war with Ukraine enters day 597. Dec'23 10Y futures marked an early session high of 108-00 before slipping back to 107-23.5 ((+16) after the bell; curves bull flattening: 2Y10Y -5.299 at -42.896.
  • Tsys pare gains briefly, rebound slightly after University of Michigan data comes out mixed: Sentiment lower (63.0 vs. 67.0 est, 68.1 prior), Current Conditions (66.7 vs. 70.3 est, 71.4 prior), Expectations (60.7 vs. 65.7 est, 66.0 prior). Inflation expectations higher 1 Yr Inflation (3.8% vs. 3.2% est, 3.2% prior), 5-10Y (3.0% vs. 2.8% est, 2.8% prior).
  • "After stabilizing earlier this year, concerns about inflation have grown again. These concerns underpin the sharp 15% deterioration in consumers’ assessments of their personal finances in this month. About 49% of consumers reported that high prices are eroding their living standards, up substantially from 39% last month and matching the all-time high last recorded in July 2022. Consumers pointed specifically to prices of food and groceries (highest share in over a year) as well as gas and fuel (highest in 2023)."
  • Projected rate hikes into early 2024 consolidating: November holding at 7.8%, w/ implied rate change of +1.9bp to 5.348%, December cumulative of 8.3bp (10.6bp late Thu) at 5.412%, January 2024 cumulative 8.1bp (10.6bp late Thu) at 5.410%. Fed terminal at 5.438% in Jan'24. Fed terminal at 5.41% in Jan'24-Feb'24.
  • Focus on Monday Data Calendar: Empire Mfg, Fed Speak, Tsy Bill Sales. Q4 equity earnings resume with Charles Schwab Monday; Bank of NY Mellon, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs on Tuesday.
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