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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessGeopol Risk, Mixed UofM Data Buoy Rates
- Middle East conflict lent to Friday morning's risk-off/safe haven bid in US rates. Meanwhile, Russia war with Ukraine enters day 597. Dec'23 10Y futures marked an early session high of 108-00 before slipping back to 107-23.5 ((+16) after the bell; curves bull flattening: 2Y10Y -5.299 at -42.896.
- Tsys pare gains briefly, rebound slightly after University of Michigan data comes out mixed: Sentiment lower (63.0 vs. 67.0 est, 68.1 prior), Current Conditions (66.7 vs. 70.3 est, 71.4 prior), Expectations (60.7 vs. 65.7 est, 66.0 prior). Inflation expectations higher 1 Yr Inflation (3.8% vs. 3.2% est, 3.2% prior), 5-10Y (3.0% vs. 2.8% est, 2.8% prior).
- "After stabilizing earlier this year, concerns about inflation have grown again. These concerns underpin the sharp 15% deterioration in consumers’ assessments of their personal finances in this month. About 49% of consumers reported that high prices are eroding their living standards, up substantially from 39% last month and matching the all-time high last recorded in July 2022. Consumers pointed specifically to prices of food and groceries (highest share in over a year) as well as gas and fuel (highest in 2023)."
- Projected rate hikes into early 2024 consolidating: November holding at 7.8%, w/ implied rate change of +1.9bp to 5.348%, December cumulative of 8.3bp (10.6bp late Thu) at 5.412%, January 2024 cumulative 8.1bp (10.6bp late Thu) at 5.410%. Fed terminal at 5.438% in Jan'24. Fed terminal at 5.41% in Jan'24-Feb'24.
- Focus on Monday Data Calendar: Empire Mfg, Fed Speak, Tsy Bill Sales. Q4 equity earnings resume with Charles Schwab Monday; Bank of NY Mellon, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs on Tuesday.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.