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Geopolitical Tensions in Russia Have Left Equities and PLN Vulnerable

POLAND
  • The surge in geopolitical tensions in Russia has left Polish risky assets and PLN vulnerable in recent weeks due to Poland’s relatively bigger dependence on imports from Russia.
  • Sell-side firms have become increasingly bearish on the PLN against major crosses (Euro, USD) in the past two weeks.
  • New lows in PLN could continue to weigh on Polish equities in the near term; the chart below shows that periods of PLN weakness have been generally associated with falling equities (and vice versa) in the past cycle.
  • WIG20 is currently trading around the 2,200 level; key short term support to watch on the downside stands at 2,103.50, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibo retracement of the 1,496.80 – 2,478.60 range.
  • On the topside, resistance to watch stands at 2,246.40 (50DMA, 23.6% Fibo), followed by 2,260.90 (200DMA).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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