Geopolitical Tensions Simmer At US-ASEAN Summit

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had a day of high-profile meetings at the ASEAN Summit in Phenom Penh, Cambodia today against the backdrop of escalating tensions with China and recent geopolitical flashpoints in Russia, Ukraine, Iran, Nagorno-Karabakh, Burma, and Sri Lanka.

• In a meeting with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Blinken discussed Russia, Sri Lanka, Burma, “and a number of other hot spots,” but the readout avoided mention of China.
• Afghanistan, and Iran were on the agenda with Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani as Blinken sought to firm up relations with the major gas supplier and non-NATO Ally.
• Blinken told EU High Representative Joseph Borrell that, “the United States remains sincere and steadfast,” in a desire to achieve a “mutual return to compliance” with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
• Blinken held a trilateral security dialogue with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi following a retaliatory snub from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
• One of the key meetings of the day was with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen as the Realm naval base in Cambodia appears set to provide China with a significantly enhanced naval presence in the region.
• Blinken told Hun Sen that, “an exclusive [Chinese] presence [in Cambodia] would risk damaging Cambodia’s sovereignty, regional security, and ASEAN unity.”
• Blinken also held a call with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu to commend Turkish efforts to ensure grain shipments out of Ukraine. Blinken told Cavusoglu that the US is ready to engage with the Minsk process to prevent the reignition of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict bringing Turkey and Russia closer to confrontation in the South Caucasus.
• The US-ASEAN summit looks set to further entrench the US and China/Russia led geopolitical blocs which have crystalised following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In addition to convincing ASEAN partners to support US-led sanctions on Russia, Blinken is also attempting to open up another front, applying pressure on China to stand down from a war-footing in the Taiwan Strait.
• This is an uphill battle as favour for China remains high in much of the Indo-Pacific. According to Morning Consult, Bangladesh, Thailand, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Singapore all regard China favourably and likely to consider House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) trip to Taiwan as provocative rather than benign.