Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GLOBAL
Some input costs are being directly impacted by developments in the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine and we have seen the subsequent swings in these factors recently, especially in energy and shipping. This situation currently appears likely to continue indefinitely and so the key is if costs rise, are they being passed on as they are persistent.
- Oil prices rose each month between January and April adding to headline price pressures but they are lower in May to date due to the unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium and demand concerns. The crude outlook is highly uncertain given geopolitical volatility and an unclear supply/demand position and so could continue to swing.
G20 CPI vs Brent vs food prices
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
- Shipping costs are also currently dependent on geopolitical developments. They are up in May for both bulk and containers after falling in April. Companies are saying rerouting away from the Red Sea is likely to continue until at least year end.
- Supply chain bottlenecks were a key reason for the rise in inflation but according to the NY Fed index continue to provide disinflationary pressures. The index fell to -0.85 in April from -0.3%.
G20 CPI vs NY Fed supply chain pressures 3-month ma
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
- Apart from rice and sugar, food prices have generally been disinflationary. The FAO index though rose in both March and April due to meat and oils. Rice prices declined over February-April but are up again so far this month.
- Metals and iron ore have shown broad based strength over Q2 with LME prices 4.4% m/m higher in May to be up 15.6% y/y. Sanctions on Russian exports and increased China infrastructure investment have boosted some metal prices. Wool prices remain weak as they are tied closely to consumer demand.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok