German August Edges Lower on Gas

German front month is edging lower today tracking losses in European gas prices. French front-week power is edging lower today with a further downward revision in temperature forecasts.

• France Base Power AUG 24 down 0.2% at 47 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 down 0.8% at 75.1 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 unchanged at 68.05 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 down 1.1% at 33.13 EUR/MWh
• Front month TTF is edging lower but holding near the previous close after a dip yesterday to the lowest since June 10 as supply risks have eased and with cool weather in NW Europe this week, while storage levels are still on target to fill comfortably ahead of winter.
• EU ETS Dec 24 is edging lower today, breaking the bullish trend from the last two sessions, weighed on by natural gas prices. The next EU EUA auction will clear today 11:00am CET.
• The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for NW Europe suggested temperatures are below the seasonal average until 6 July, when temperatures briefly move above normal, before falling back to normal. Temperatures are forecast to rise well above the seasonal average from 9 July onwards.
• Rhine river water levels at the Kaub measuring point stood at 3.59m on Tuesday, slightly up from 3.57m the day before, WSA data showed.
• In Germany, forecasts suggested wind output will rise from Thursday until Saturday before falling back down. Combined onshore and offshore wind output is forecast at 4.26GW to 24.67GW during base load between 3 and 9 July. Solar PV output is forecast at 14.6GW-28.42GW during peak load on 3-9 July according to SpotRenewables.
• Power demand in Germany is forecast to reach a peak of 63.12GW on Tuesday and of 63.42GW on Wednesday according to Entso-E.
• In France, nuclear availability was stable on the day at 69% of capacity as of Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
• The unplanned outage at the 880MW Bugey 5 reactor is scheduled to end on Tuesday at 22:30CET. Planned works at the 880MW Bugey 4 reactor have been extended by two days until 6 July.
• French power demand is forecast at reach 51.19GW on Tuesday and a maximum of 51.64GW on Wednesday, Entso-E data showed.
• The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested temperatures have been slightly revised down at the front of the forecast and are expected to be below normal until 8 July, after which temperatures will rise well above normal.
• In France, forecasts suggested wind output at 1.6GW-7.27GW during base load on 3-9 July. Solar PV output is forecast at 6.59GW-8.72GW during peak load on 3-9 July according to SpotRenewables.
• French hydropower reserves stood at 2.945TWh as of the end of last week, up from 2.844TWh the week before and above 2023 levels of 2.933TWh, RTE data showed late on Monday.