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POWER: German DA Flips to Discount to France as Residual Load Drops

POWER
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German day-ahead prices shifted to a discount compared to France due to increased wind generation and higher load factors, which reduced Germany’s residual load. Meanwhile, weaker wind in France limited losses from lower power consumption and stable nuclear availability.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €110.83/MWh from €132.45/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €117.31/MWh from €130.18/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €6.48/MWh discount from a €2.27/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise to 19.57GW, or 30% load factor during base load on Wednesday, up from 9.58GW on Tuesday, according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind output in Germany will then be at 21.16GW, or 33% load factor on 20 February (Thur) – which could see prices fall again.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to be broadly stable on the day at 63.3GGW on Wednesday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecasts to rise to 1.4C on Wednesday from -0.6C on Tuesday and below the seasonal average of 4.3C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Power demand will then also be 63.3GW on 20 February.
  • Residual load in Germany is forecast to fall to 34.68GWh/h on Wednesday from 47.24GWh/h on Tuesday according to Reuters.
  • In contrast, Wind output in France is forecast to decline to 5.53GW, or 23% load factor during base load on Wednesday from 6.17GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind will then be at a 29% load factor, or 6.91GW on 20 February.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to decline to 64.85GW on Wednesday, down from 66.49GW on Tuesday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to rise to 6.1C on Wednesday, from 3.4C on Tuesday and above the seasonal average of 5.5C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Power demand will then be at 61.94GW on 20 February.
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 80% of capacity as of Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
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German day-ahead prices shifted to a discount compared to France due to increased wind generation and higher load factors, which reduced Germany’s residual load. Meanwhile, weaker wind in France limited losses from lower power consumption and stable nuclear availability.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €110.83/MWh from €132.45/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €117.31/MWh from €130.18/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €6.48/MWh discount from a €2.27/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise to 19.57GW, or 30% load factor during base load on Wednesday, up from 9.58GW on Tuesday, according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind output in Germany will then be at 21.16GW, or 33% load factor on 20 February (Thur) – which could see prices fall again.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to be broadly stable on the day at 63.3GGW on Wednesday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecasts to rise to 1.4C on Wednesday from -0.6C on Tuesday and below the seasonal average of 4.3C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Power demand will then also be 63.3GW on 20 February.
  • Residual load in Germany is forecast to fall to 34.68GWh/h on Wednesday from 47.24GWh/h on Tuesday according to Reuters.
  • In contrast, Wind output in France is forecast to decline to 5.53GW, or 23% load factor during base load on Wednesday from 6.17GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind will then be at a 29% load factor, or 6.91GW on 20 February.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to decline to 64.85GW on Wednesday, down from 66.49GW on Tuesday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to rise to 6.1C on Wednesday, from 3.4C on Tuesday and above the seasonal average of 5.5C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Power demand will then be at 61.94GW on 20 February.
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 80% of capacity as of Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.