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POWER: German DA Maintains Discount to France, May Persists for 12 Feb

POWER
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German day-ahead prices remained lower than France’s, driven by increased wind generation from the previous day and lower power consumption in Germany compared to France. This trend is expected to persist for 12 February delivery, supported by slightly higher load factors of German wind contrasted to France.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €120.01/MWh from €121.84/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €141.57/MWh from €144.21/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €21.56/MWh discount from a €22.37/MWh discount in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to increase to 28.95GW, or a 45% load factor during base load on Tuesday from 25.16GW on Monday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind output in Germany will then be at 13.97GW, or 22% load factor on 12 February (Tue) – which may lead to higher power prices from the previous session.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to rise to 63.23GW on Tuesday from 61.3GW on Monday despite mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to rise to 4.1C on Tuesday from 2.3C on Monday and above the seasonal average of 3.7C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Power demand in the country will then be at 63.02GW on 12 February.
  • Residual load in Germany is forecast to decline to 28.73GWh/h on Tuesday, down from 30.53GWh/h on Monday according to Reuters.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to fall to 3.55GW, or 15% load factor, during base load on Tuesday, down from 4.81GW on Monday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind will then be at a 10% load factor, or 2.32GW on 12 February – which could place prices at a premium to Germany.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to rise to 66.79GW on Tuesday, up from 66.34GW on Monday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to fall to 3.7C on Tuesday from 4.8C on Monday and below the seasonal average of 4.9C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then be at 66.64GW on 12 February.
  • Residual load in France is forecast to rise to 62.8GWh/h on Tuesday from 59.44GWh/h on Monday according to Reuters.
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 79% of capacity as of Monday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg
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German day-ahead prices remained lower than France’s, driven by increased wind generation from the previous day and lower power consumption in Germany compared to France. This trend is expected to persist for 12 February delivery, supported by slightly higher load factors of German wind contrasted to France.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €120.01/MWh from €121.84/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €141.57/MWh from €144.21/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €21.56/MWh discount from a €22.37/MWh discount in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to increase to 28.95GW, or a 45% load factor during base load on Tuesday from 25.16GW on Monday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind output in Germany will then be at 13.97GW, or 22% load factor on 12 February (Tue) – which may lead to higher power prices from the previous session.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to rise to 63.23GW on Tuesday from 61.3GW on Monday despite mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to rise to 4.1C on Tuesday from 2.3C on Monday and above the seasonal average of 3.7C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Power demand in the country will then be at 63.02GW on 12 February.
  • Residual load in Germany is forecast to decline to 28.73GWh/h on Tuesday, down from 30.53GWh/h on Monday according to Reuters.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to fall to 3.55GW, or 15% load factor, during base load on Tuesday, down from 4.81GW on Monday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind will then be at a 10% load factor, or 2.32GW on 12 February – which could place prices at a premium to Germany.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to rise to 66.79GW on Tuesday, up from 66.34GW on Monday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to fall to 3.7C on Tuesday from 4.8C on Monday and below the seasonal average of 4.9C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then be at 66.64GW on 12 February.
  • Residual load in France is forecast to rise to 62.8GWh/h on Tuesday from 59.44GWh/h on Monday according to Reuters.
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 79% of capacity as of Monday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg