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POWER: German DA Maintains Premium to FR, Likely to Continue for 22 Jan Delivery

POWER
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German and French day-ahead power prices declined as increased wind generation and lower power consumption from the previous session put downward pressure on delivery costs. Strong nuclear availability in France kept prices lower compared to Germany, a trend likely to continue for 22 January delivery, as wind generation in France is expected to be at higher load factors than Germany.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €168.46/MWh from €231.36/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €159.90/MWh from €196.71/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €8.59/MWh premium from a €34.65/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to edge higher on the day to 7.5GW during base load on Tuesday, up from 5.06GW on Monday. Wind will then be at 13.12GW, or 20% load factor the next day – likely weighing on delivery costs further.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to decrease to 61.82GW on Tuesday, up from 60.88GW on Monday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to rise to 0.2C on Tuesday, from -1.4C on Monday but below the seasonal normal of 2.9C, according to Bloomberg.
  • German power demand will then remain firm on 22 January (Wed) at 61.62GW.
  • In contrast, Wind output in France is forecast to rise to 3.58GW during base load on Tuesday, up from 1.69GW on Monday according to SpotRenewables.
  • French wind will then be at 5.66GW or an 28% load factor on 22 January.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to fall to 74.83GW on Tuesday, down from 75.35GW on Monday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to rise to 2C on Tuesday, from 0.4C on Monday but below the seasonal average of 4.2C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then drop to 71.98GW on 22 January.
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 92% of capacity as of Monday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • EdF’s 1.62GW Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor is currently in test runs with 35MW of capacity until 23 January.
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German and French day-ahead power prices declined as increased wind generation and lower power consumption from the previous session put downward pressure on delivery costs. Strong nuclear availability in France kept prices lower compared to Germany, a trend likely to continue for 22 January delivery, as wind generation in France is expected to be at higher load factors than Germany.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €168.46/MWh from €231.36/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €159.90/MWh from €196.71/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €8.59/MWh premium from a €34.65/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to edge higher on the day to 7.5GW during base load on Tuesday, up from 5.06GW on Monday. Wind will then be at 13.12GW, or 20% load factor the next day – likely weighing on delivery costs further.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to decrease to 61.82GW on Tuesday, up from 60.88GW on Monday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to rise to 0.2C on Tuesday, from -1.4C on Monday but below the seasonal normal of 2.9C, according to Bloomberg.
  • German power demand will then remain firm on 22 January (Wed) at 61.62GW.
  • In contrast, Wind output in France is forecast to rise to 3.58GW during base load on Tuesday, up from 1.69GW on Monday according to SpotRenewables.
  • French wind will then be at 5.66GW or an 28% load factor on 22 January.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to fall to 74.83GW on Tuesday, down from 75.35GW on Monday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to rise to 2C on Tuesday, from 0.4C on Monday but below the seasonal average of 4.2C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then drop to 71.98GW on 22 January.
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 92% of capacity as of Monday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • EdF’s 1.62GW Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor is currently in test runs with 35MW of capacity until 23 January.