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POWER: German DA Narrows Premium to France, Spot May Rise Further for 30 Jan

POWER
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France's spot prices remained at a discount to Germany, although the gap narrowed compared to the previous session, as anticipated in MNI's earlier analysis. Both regions saw price increases due to sustained power demand and firm residual loads. As wind output is expected to decline, spot prices in both France and Germany are likely to continue rising for the 30 January delivery.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €108.14/MWh from €106.37/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €72.77/MWh from €30.53/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €35.37/MWh premium from a €75.84/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise to 26.9GW during base load on Wednesday, up from 21.45GW on Tuesday, according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind will then be at 12.94GW, or 20% load factor the next day – likely raising costs from the previous session.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to edge down to 61.44GW on Wednesday, down from 61.56GW on Tuesday as mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to decline to 7C on Wednesday from 7.9C on Tuesday but above the seasonal average of 3.1C, according to Bloomberg.
  • German demand will then be at 60.82GW on 30 January.
  • Residual load in Germany is forecast to decrease to 28.48GWh/h on Wednesday, down from 34.91GWh/h on Tuesday according to Reuters.
  • In contrast, Wind output in France is forecast to decrease to 9.4GW during base load on Wednesday from 14.06GW on Tuesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind will then be at 4.81GW, or a 21% load factor on 30 January.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to edge up to 63.9GW on Wednesday, up from 63.44GW on Tuesday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to decline to 7.3C on Wednesday, from 7.7C on Tuesday and above the seasonal average of 4.3C, according to Bloomberg.
  • French power demand will then be at 64.83GW the next day.
  • Residual load in France is forecast to increase to 48.61GWh/h on Wednesday from 43.86GWh/h on Tuesday according to Reuters.
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 81% of capacity as of Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
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France's spot prices remained at a discount to Germany, although the gap narrowed compared to the previous session, as anticipated in MNI's earlier analysis. Both regions saw price increases due to sustained power demand and firm residual loads. As wind output is expected to decline, spot prices in both France and Germany are likely to continue rising for the 30 January delivery.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €108.14/MWh from €106.37/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €72.77/MWh from €30.53/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €35.37/MWh premium from a €75.84/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise to 26.9GW during base load on Wednesday, up from 21.45GW on Tuesday, according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind will then be at 12.94GW, or 20% load factor the next day – likely raising costs from the previous session.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to edge down to 61.44GW on Wednesday, down from 61.56GW on Tuesday as mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to decline to 7C on Wednesday from 7.9C on Tuesday but above the seasonal average of 3.1C, according to Bloomberg.
  • German demand will then be at 60.82GW on 30 January.
  • Residual load in Germany is forecast to decrease to 28.48GWh/h on Wednesday, down from 34.91GWh/h on Tuesday according to Reuters.
  • In contrast, Wind output in France is forecast to decrease to 9.4GW during base load on Wednesday from 14.06GW on Tuesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind will then be at 4.81GW, or a 21% load factor on 30 January.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to edge up to 63.9GW on Wednesday, up from 63.44GW on Tuesday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to decline to 7.3C on Wednesday, from 7.7C on Tuesday and above the seasonal average of 4.3C, according to Bloomberg.
  • French power demand will then be at 64.83GW the next day.
  • Residual load in France is forecast to increase to 48.61GWh/h on Wednesday from 43.86GWh/h on Tuesday according to Reuters.
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 81% of capacity as of Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.