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POWER: German DA Widens Discount to France Amid Higher Wind, Lower Demand

POWER
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German and French day ahead costs diverged, with delivery costs in Germany edging down from the previous session amid a slight increase in wind power, which offset a small rise in power demand. Meanwhile, lower wind in France and a sharper increase in power consumption supported costs in the region. looking ahead, Germany could remain at a discount to the latter for 4 January delivery amid much lower demand estimated compared to France.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €89.94/MWh from €92.91/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €115.69/MWh from €107.69/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €25.75/MWh discount from a €14.78/MWh discount in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast at 30.77GW, or a 48% load factor on Friday from 26.31GW, or a 41% load factor forecasted for Thursday, according to SpotRenewables. Wind is then expected to fall to 13.45GW the next day, however, with lower demand on the day prices could still fall from the previous session.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to rise to 53.06GW on Friday from 52.86GW on Thursday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf estimated to decrease to 1.1C tomorrow from 3.5C today, according to Bloomberg
  • Demand will then drop the next day to 47.75GW.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to fall to 2.39GW, or a 12% load factor on Friday from 5.18GW forecasted for Thursday according to SpotRenewables. But will pick up the next day to be at a 27% load factor.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to rise to 67.50GW on Friday from 63.70GW on Thursday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to drop to -0.2C on Friday from 4.6C on Thursday and below the seasonal average, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then edged down to 66.43GW on 4 January – likely placing some downward pressure on power prices.
  • Nuclear availability in France was at 84% of capacity as of Thursday morning from 80% on Tuesday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • The 1.49GW Civaux 1 nuke is offline until 5 January, with the 1.62GW Flamanville 3 out also until the same day
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German and French day ahead costs diverged, with delivery costs in Germany edging down from the previous session amid a slight increase in wind power, which offset a small rise in power demand. Meanwhile, lower wind in France and a sharper increase in power consumption supported costs in the region. looking ahead, Germany could remain at a discount to the latter for 4 January delivery amid much lower demand estimated compared to France.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €89.94/MWh from €92.91/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €115.69/MWh from €107.69/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €25.75/MWh discount from a €14.78/MWh discount in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast at 30.77GW, or a 48% load factor on Friday from 26.31GW, or a 41% load factor forecasted for Thursday, according to SpotRenewables. Wind is then expected to fall to 13.45GW the next day, however, with lower demand on the day prices could still fall from the previous session.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to rise to 53.06GW on Friday from 52.86GW on Thursday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf estimated to decrease to 1.1C tomorrow from 3.5C today, according to Bloomberg
  • Demand will then drop the next day to 47.75GW.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to fall to 2.39GW, or a 12% load factor on Friday from 5.18GW forecasted for Thursday according to SpotRenewables. But will pick up the next day to be at a 27% load factor.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to rise to 67.50GW on Friday from 63.70GW on Thursday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to drop to -0.2C on Friday from 4.6C on Thursday and below the seasonal average, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then edged down to 66.43GW on 4 January – likely placing some downward pressure on power prices.
  • Nuclear availability in France was at 84% of capacity as of Thursday morning from 80% on Tuesday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • The 1.49GW Civaux 1 nuke is offline until 5 January, with the 1.62GW Flamanville 3 out also until the same day