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GERMAN DATA: Consumer Climate Gives Up (Bumpy) Gains of Last 6 Months in Dec

GERMAN DATA
Data BulletEurozoneGermanyCEEMEABulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

The GfK Consumer Climate for Germany fell sharply in the December print, declining 4.9 points to -23.3, now standing at a level similar to where it was in May, giving up its (bumpy but overall significant) gains since then.

  • "Income expectations fall sharply and the willingness to buy declines slightly. As the willingness to save rises at the same time, the forecast for the last month of this year decreases significantly."
  • This comes amid consumer demand being one of the few comparatively stronger areas of the German economy recently.
  • Deutsche Bank wrote yesterday: "The window for a consumption-driven recovery is slowly closing. Income gains and declining consumer price inflation have brought tangible gains in purchasing power. However, consumer confidence could now increasingly suffer from the negative news from the labor market. The impending tightening of the global customs regime also poses a risk."
  • ECB's Schnabel was most recently a bit more optimistic on the narrative of a consumer-driven recovery, seeing some evidence in the hard data (referring to the Eurozone as a whole, though).
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The GfK Consumer Climate for Germany fell sharply in the December print, declining 4.9 points to -23.3, now standing at a level similar to where it was in May, giving up its (bumpy but overall significant) gains since then.

  • "Income expectations fall sharply and the willingness to buy declines slightly. As the willingness to save rises at the same time, the forecast for the last month of this year decreases significantly."
  • This comes amid consumer demand being one of the few comparatively stronger areas of the German economy recently.
  • Deutsche Bank wrote yesterday: "The window for a consumption-driven recovery is slowly closing. Income gains and declining consumer price inflation have brought tangible gains in purchasing power. However, consumer confidence could now increasingly suffer from the negative news from the labor market. The impending tightening of the global customs regime also poses a risk."
  • ECB's Schnabel was most recently a bit more optimistic on the narrative of a consumer-driven recovery, seeing some evidence in the hard data (referring to the Eurozone as a whole, though).