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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMAN DATA
German negotiated wages incl. one-off payments inclined 11.7% Y/Y in March (vs 5.9% in Feb), the highest yearly growth rate in the recent cycle, bringing in the Q1 growth to 6.2% Y/Y. This poses some upside risks to analyst expectations for a +4.5% Y/Y Eurozone-wide negotiated wage tracker print (released Thursday), in addition to this week's release of a firmer Q1 overall labour cost index growth (+4.9% Y/Y vs +3.4% Q4). JPMorgan now pencils in 4.7%. It printed 4.5% in Q4 23.
- While the effect of one-time payments, which was heavily driven by tax-exempt one-off inflation remunerations of up to E3000 is likely to taper off fairly quickly, the underlying uptick will be more concerning to ECB policymakers. Underlying growth (excluding one-offs) ticked up notably in March, to 4.1% Y/Y (vs 2.6% Feb).
- March saw an unusually high number of negotiated wage contracts expiring, impacting about 1.9mln workers (4% of the total workforce). Negotiations in April and May (driven by the services sector) saw a lower number of affected workers. The next large round of negotiations will be in September, when contracts in the metal and electrical industry will expire.
- Note that even if the German jump contrasts with softer readings elsewhere in the Eurozone.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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