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GERMAN DATA: September Industrial Production Sees Broad-Based Weakness

GERMAN DATA
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German industrial production declined more than expected in September, at -2.5% M/M, vs consensus of -1.0% and a downwardly revised +2.6% in August (2.9% previously reported). On a yearly basis, IP came in at -4.6% (vs -3.0% cons; -3.0% prior, -2.7% previously reported). The reversal of August's strong print underpins the narrative of ongoing weakness in German manufacturing - also sentiment remains close to cycle lows.

  • The less volatile 3M/3M measure went further into negative territory, printing -1.9% (-1.3% prior).
  • On a broad view, the main categories all showed declines in September: manufacturing -2.7% vs +3.4% prior; energy -2.1% M/M vs +2.3% prior; construction -1.4 M/M vs +0.3% prior.
  • Within manufacturing, vehicle production saw a weak -7.8% following August's +15.4%. Given the fall in July, on an index basis we are broadly back to June levels - but there has been a lot of volatility in this component which has driven volatility in the headline index.
  • All broader sectors (investment goods, intermediate goods, consumption goods) registered declines.
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German industrial production declined more than expected in September, at -2.5% M/M, vs consensus of -1.0% and a downwardly revised +2.6% in August (2.9% previously reported). On a yearly basis, IP came in at -4.6% (vs -3.0% cons; -3.0% prior, -2.7% previously reported). The reversal of August's strong print underpins the narrative of ongoing weakness in German manufacturing - also sentiment remains close to cycle lows.

  • The less volatile 3M/3M measure went further into negative territory, printing -1.9% (-1.3% prior).
  • On a broad view, the main categories all showed declines in September: manufacturing -2.7% vs +3.4% prior; energy -2.1% M/M vs +2.3% prior; construction -1.4 M/M vs +0.3% prior.
  • Within manufacturing, vehicle production saw a weak -7.8% following August's +15.4%. Given the fall in July, on an index basis we are broadly back to June levels - but there has been a lot of volatility in this component which has driven volatility in the headline index.
  • All broader sectors (investment goods, intermediate goods, consumption goods) registered declines.