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POWER: German-France DA Settle at Parity, Prices Could Rise Further for 25 Dec

POWER
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German and French day-ahead power prices settled at parity, with both regions seeing price increases due to a sharp expected drop in wind output tomorrow. However, subdued demand tempered the gains, while stable nuclear availability in France helped narrow the FR-DE spread. Looking ahead, prices could rise further for 25 Dec delivery, as wind generation is forecasted to decline more, although lower demand may limit the extent of the increase.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €102.49/MWh from €59.10/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €102.49/MWh from €65.56/MWh on the previous day.
  • France was at parity with Germany from a €6.46/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to drop to 11.56GW, or a 18% load factor on Tuesday from 29.81GW, or a 41% load factor forecasted for Monday. Looking ahead, wind is expected at 8.50GW, or a 13% load factor the next day – which could support power prices further.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to decrease to 53.39GW on Tuesday from 54.89GW on Monday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to remain firm on Tuesday at 4.5C compared with 4.55C on Monday – with temperatures above the seasonal average.
  • Demand will then drop on 25 Dec to be 51.41GW – which could weigh on delivery costs.
  • In contrast, Wind output in France is forecast to drop to 2.78GW or a 14% load factor on Tuesday from 10.00GW forecasted for Monday. Wind will then fall further to 1.78GW or 9% load factor the next day.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to fall to 57.18GW on Tuesday from 59.63GW on Monday amid mean temperatures in Paris forecast to rise to 7.3C on Tuesday from 6.4C on Monday and above the seasonal average, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then drop to 52.87GW on 25 Dec – likely placing some downward pressure on power prices.
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 83% of capacity as of Monday morning from Friday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • However,  EdF has extended the outage at its 1.3GW Cattenom 4 nuclear reactor to 31 December from 24 December, latest Remit data show.
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German and French day-ahead power prices settled at parity, with both regions seeing price increases due to a sharp expected drop in wind output tomorrow. However, subdued demand tempered the gains, while stable nuclear availability in France helped narrow the FR-DE spread. Looking ahead, prices could rise further for 25 Dec delivery, as wind generation is forecasted to decline more, although lower demand may limit the extent of the increase.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €102.49/MWh from €59.10/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €102.49/MWh from €65.56/MWh on the previous day.
  • France was at parity with Germany from a €6.46/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to drop to 11.56GW, or a 18% load factor on Tuesday from 29.81GW, or a 41% load factor forecasted for Monday. Looking ahead, wind is expected at 8.50GW, or a 13% load factor the next day – which could support power prices further.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to decrease to 53.39GW on Tuesday from 54.89GW on Monday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to remain firm on Tuesday at 4.5C compared with 4.55C on Monday – with temperatures above the seasonal average.
  • Demand will then drop on 25 Dec to be 51.41GW – which could weigh on delivery costs.
  • In contrast, Wind output in France is forecast to drop to 2.78GW or a 14% load factor on Tuesday from 10.00GW forecasted for Monday. Wind will then fall further to 1.78GW or 9% load factor the next day.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to fall to 57.18GW on Tuesday from 59.63GW on Monday amid mean temperatures in Paris forecast to rise to 7.3C on Tuesday from 6.4C on Monday and above the seasonal average, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then drop to 52.87GW on 25 Dec – likely placing some downward pressure on power prices.
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 83% of capacity as of Monday morning from Friday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • However,  EdF has extended the outage at its 1.3GW Cattenom 4 nuclear reactor to 31 December from 24 December, latest Remit data show.