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POWER: German-French Power Spread to Narrow to "Single Digits" by Late 2026: BNP

POWER
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German-French power price spreads are forecast to narrow to single digits by late 2026 as Germany accelerates its wind energy expansion and grid upgrades, BNP Paribas said, cited by Bloomberg.

  • While the German premium to France is expected to persist this year, Germany’s rapid renewable buildout—targeting 5GW annually by the decade’s end—is a key factor in narrowing the price differential, BNP added.
  • Additionally, Solar capacity surged to 100GW in 2023, up from 60GW in 2021, with Germany aiming for 80% of its generation mix to be renewable by 2030.
  • High energy prices have weighed on Germany’s industrial sector, exacerbated by the 2023 nuclear phaseout and reliance on coal and gas.
  • Analysts predict that as gas prices decline, the switch from coal could further accelerate price reductions.
  • The German 2026 power contract last settled at a €23.04/MWh premium to the French equivalent on 24 February, up from a €22.33/MWh premium in the previous session.





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German-French power price spreads are forecast to narrow to single digits by late 2026 as Germany accelerates its wind energy expansion and grid upgrades, BNP Paribas said, cited by Bloomberg.

  • While the German premium to France is expected to persist this year, Germany’s rapid renewable buildout—targeting 5GW annually by the decade’s end—is a key factor in narrowing the price differential, BNP added.
  • Additionally, Solar capacity surged to 100GW in 2023, up from 60GW in 2021, with Germany aiming for 80% of its generation mix to be renewable by 2030.
  • High energy prices have weighed on Germany’s industrial sector, exacerbated by the 2023 nuclear phaseout and reliance on coal and gas.
  • Analysts predict that as gas prices decline, the switch from coal could further accelerate price reductions.
  • The German 2026 power contract last settled at a €23.04/MWh premium to the French equivalent on 24 February, up from a €22.33/MWh premium in the previous session.





    image