German Front Week Regains Ground

Germany July power base load is edging higher today amid small gains in European gas prices while carbon allowances are stable. German front week is extending gains after a downward revision in wind forecasts. In France, the Paluel 2 and Bugey 4 reactor maintenances have been extended by four and ten days, respectively.

• Germany Base Power Week 2 up 4.2% at 83 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power JUL 24 up 1% at 77.31 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 0.2% at 72.47 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas JUL 24 up 0.7% at 34.03 EUR/MWh
• TTF front month has steadied after a pull back to levels seen mid last week with a clearer timeline for the return of Norwegian supply from unplanned outage after surging to the highest since December on Monday.
• EU ETS Dec 24 is stable today, within this week’s range. The by-weekly Polish EUA auction will clear today at 11:00 CET.
• after yesterday’s rally supported by gains in European gas prices and lower expected supply following the release of the latest TNAC 2023.
• Cargo shipping in the south part of the Rhine River is still closed on Wednesday morning, WSA said, cited by Reuters.
• Forecasts for wind output in Germany have been revised down with combined onshore and offshore wind forecast at 4.32GW-13.06GW between 6-12 June during base load. Forecasts for solar PV output remained high at 19.04GW-26.5GW during peak load between 6-14 June according to SpotRenewables.
• German power demand is expected at a maximum of 63.28GW on Wednesday and of 63.64GW on Thursday according to Entso-E.
• French nuclear availability has been stable on the day at 68%, or around 41.91GW, as of Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Reuters.
• The planned maintenance at the 1.33GW Paluel 2 nuclear facility has been extended by four days until 14 June. Works at the 880MW Bugey 4 reactor have been extended by ten days until 23 June. 1.33GW Flamanville 1 had a forced halt on Thursday evening and is currently ramping output back up, remit data showed.
• French power demand is forecast to reach a maximum of 49.89GW on Wednesday and of 49.08GW on Thursday according to Entso-E.
• The latest ECMWF weather forecast for Paris showed temperatures will remain below the seasonal normal until 14 June, with maximum temperatures to reach 22C at the end of the forecast period, unlikely to spur any demand for electric cooling. The latest forecast for Marseille, south of France, saw maximum temperatures at 26C, likely boosting some demand for electric cooling. However, temperatures are currently forecast to fall from 9 June.
• Forecasts for wind output in France have been revised down to 1GW-3.8GW during base load on 6-14 June. Forecasts for solar PV output have been revised up to 5.05GW-8.07GW during peak load on 6-14 June according to spotrenewables.