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German Inflation and Reweighting: Key Uncertainties

MNI (London)

The German final CPI print for January will be released tomorrow at 0700 GMT / 0800 CET.

  • Consensus expects the harmonised inflation print to be confirmed at +0.5% m/m and +9.2% y/y, implying a 0.4pp deceleration on the annualised headline print.
  • Markets are pricing in 49bp for the March ECB meeting (where the ECB has already strongly signalled a 50bp hike) and then pricing in a further 36bp of hikes in May and a terminal rate around 3.75% in the summer.
  • Any large revisions to tomorrow’s data are likely to have a larger impact on May and terminal rate pricing than on March pricing.
See our analysis piece on the uncertainties surrounding the reweighting here:

German Inflation and Reweighting_Key Uncertainties.pdf

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