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POWER: German March Power Tracks 10% Weekly Loss

POWER
CEEMEAEurozoneEnergy BulletsGermanyBulletPower BulletsCommodities

The German March power base-load contract is tracking a weekly net decline of above 10%, weighed on by sharp losses in EU gas prices and EUAs, while milder weather expected to weigh on demand. This is despite forecasts for relatively low wind output. 

  • Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 2.2% at 96.98 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.1% at 77.94 EUR/t CO2e
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 2.9% at 49.875 EUR/MWh
  • German Spark Spreads M1 down 10.2% at -19.7279 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month is extending the decline this week to fall around €10/MWh from a peak of €59.39/MWh on Feb. 11 under growing calls from member states to relax EU storage targets.  Potential Ukraine peace talks, strong LNG imports driven by record US exports are adding bearish pressure and with the possibility of a correction to high net long market positioning.
  • EUAs 2025 are edging lower again amid sharp losses in EU gas prices. 2025 EUAs are tracking a weekly net decline of 5.4%. The next German ETS CAP3 auction will clear today.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to decrease to 1.34GW during base load on Saturday, before rising to 8.6GW during base load on Sunday, compared with 4.64GW on Friday according to SpotRenewables.
  • The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggests mean temperatures have been revised higher on the day to rise above normal from 19 until 26 February.
  • Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to edge higher to 1C on Saturday before edging lower on Sunday at 0.9C, with temperatures below the seasonal normal.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to fall to 54.38GW on Saturday and to 51.49GW on Sunday, compared with 62.43GW on Friday according to Bloomberg.
  • Residual load in Germany is forecast to fall to 47.5GWh/h on Saturday and to 33.54GWh/h on Sunday, from 56.7GWh/h on Friday according to Reuters.
  • Germany’s hydro balance has been revised lower on the day to end at -150GWh on 28 February, compared with -99GWh a day earlier.
  • Uniper’s 1.05GW Datteln 4 had an unplanned outage on Thursday afternoon. Output is expected to be ramping up trough Friday until 15:00CET. 
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The German March power base-load contract is tracking a weekly net decline of above 10%, weighed on by sharp losses in EU gas prices and EUAs, while milder weather expected to weigh on demand. This is despite forecasts for relatively low wind output. 

  • Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 2.2% at 96.98 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.1% at 77.94 EUR/t CO2e
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 2.9% at 49.875 EUR/MWh
  • German Spark Spreads M1 down 10.2% at -19.7279 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month is extending the decline this week to fall around €10/MWh from a peak of €59.39/MWh on Feb. 11 under growing calls from member states to relax EU storage targets.  Potential Ukraine peace talks, strong LNG imports driven by record US exports are adding bearish pressure and with the possibility of a correction to high net long market positioning.
  • EUAs 2025 are edging lower again amid sharp losses in EU gas prices. 2025 EUAs are tracking a weekly net decline of 5.4%. The next German ETS CAP3 auction will clear today.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to decrease to 1.34GW during base load on Saturday, before rising to 8.6GW during base load on Sunday, compared with 4.64GW on Friday according to SpotRenewables.
  • The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggests mean temperatures have been revised higher on the day to rise above normal from 19 until 26 February.
  • Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to edge higher to 1C on Saturday before edging lower on Sunday at 0.9C, with temperatures below the seasonal normal.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to fall to 54.38GW on Saturday and to 51.49GW on Sunday, compared with 62.43GW on Friday according to Bloomberg.
  • Residual load in Germany is forecast to fall to 47.5GWh/h on Saturday and to 33.54GWh/h on Sunday, from 56.7GWh/h on Friday according to Reuters.
  • Germany’s hydro balance has been revised lower on the day to end at -150GWh on 28 February, compared with -99GWh a day earlier.
  • Uniper’s 1.05GW Datteln 4 had an unplanned outage on Thursday afternoon. Output is expected to be ramping up trough Friday until 15:00CET.