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EUROPEAN INFLATION: German state CPIs broadly in line with exp at first glance

EUROPEAN INFLATION
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  • So far the M/Ms are coming in between 0.3-0.6%.
  • The Y/Ys are a bit more mixed showing decelerations from -0.2ppt vs last month to +0.2ppt accelleration.
  • National CPI (non-HICP) expectations were for a 0.4%M/M increase and for the Y/Y print to remain at 2.3%.
  • So there isn't a clear signal from the first few states that are reporting here.
  • This looks broadly in line with expectations.
  • For HICP (which doesn't always follow surprises in the national CPI), the consensus made ahead of these releases was for 0.5%M/M and a 0.1ppt deceleration to 2.7%Y/Y.
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  • So far the M/Ms are coming in between 0.3-0.6%.
  • The Y/Ys are a bit more mixed showing decelerations from -0.2ppt vs last month to +0.2ppt accelleration.
  • National CPI (non-HICP) expectations were for a 0.4%M/M increase and for the Y/Y print to remain at 2.3%.
  • So there isn't a clear signal from the first few states that are reporting here.
  • This looks broadly in line with expectations.
  • For HICP (which doesn't always follow surprises in the national CPI), the consensus made ahead of these releases was for 0.5%M/M and a 0.1ppt deceleration to 2.7%Y/Y.