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German Tax Revenues Continued To Narrow Historic Gap In June

EUROPEAN FISCAL

German tax revenue excluding municipality taxes increased 6.2% Y/Y to E91.7bln in June, pushing up the YTD comparison to +3.6% Y/Y (+2.9% April/May).

  • Despite being higher than last year in simple cash terms, revenues still appear to be lagging behind historical standards as a proportion of total expected revenue for the year, when compared to the current full-year forecasts.
  • Specifically, June YTD revenues were 47.9% of forecast 2024 total revenues, versus a historical average (2017-2023) of 48.3% of for Jan-May. However, this follows May's revenues tracking at 36.7% vs 37.3% hist avg, showing the gap for this year continued to narrow slightly in June (May also saw a slight catch-up vs April measures, for reference).
  • Income taxes saw some improvement in June after a slightly weak May, coming in at +6.0% Y/Y (vs +4.1% May). Its growth rate remains "below the level to be expected from nominal wage growth", the Ministry of Finance adds, citing the partial tax exemption of some of the wage gains as the likely driver.
  • Capital gains revenues continue to print way above recent historical standards (+181.9% Y/Y YTD as of June vs +186.3% May). As interest income, which drives the high yearly rates, already started to increase towards the latter part of last year, the Ministry of Finance expects the Y/Y comparison to come down again a bit in the coming months.
  • An increase in taxes on revenue (VAT/import VAT) of 11.9% Y/Y, which brings up the YTD measure of the category to +2.9% in June (up from +1.3% in May), was largely driven by statistical effects and is not meaningful, the MoF noted.

MNI, Bundesfinanzministerium

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