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German yields lower following early regional CPI releases

BONDS
  • The earlier-than-expected releases of Brandenburg / Berlin CPI (German regional CPI data that had been expected to be released on Monday) looks to be the biggest driver of the German curve so far this morning. The numbers look lower than the early consensus for the national print would imply, but we caution against reading too much into these numbers as they haven't the strongest correlation with movements in the national print.
  • Nevertheless, over the past hour or so Schatz and Bund yields have been moving lower, with Schatz yields down over 2bp and below yesterday's intraday lows. At the time of writing, yields were around 2.2bp above the 9 October low of 3.030% while Euribor futures are also outperforming SONIA and SOFR futures on the day.
  • Gilts have moved higher this morning but the moves were generally before the German regional data and largely catching up with moves seen in USTs yesterday following the more-successful 5-year UST auction (relative to other recent UST auctions).
  • USTs have largely traded sideways this morning.
  • US Core PCE and US personal income / spending data remain the highlights for the rest of the day with Fed's Barr also due to speak (but in the blackout period so not on monpol).
  • TY1 futures are down -0-3+ today at 106-07+ with 10y UST yields up 1.9bp at 4.865% and 2y yields up 0.7bp at 5.048%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.18 today at 128.65 with 10y Bund yields down -2.9bp at 2.830% and Schatz yields down -2.3bp at 3.046%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.16 today at 924.48 with 10y yields down -1.9bp at 4.577% and 2y yields down -2.6bp at 4.786%.
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