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POWER: Germany Maintains Discount to France for Eighth Session

POWER
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A drop in demand and a rebound in wind output heavily impacted the German and French day-ahead contracts. With higher wind load factors in Germany and lower demand, Germany cleared at a wider discount to France compared to the previous session. Looking ahead, German wind is forecasts at a 52% load factor on 23 Dec (Mon), compared to France's 47%, with French demand also exceeding Germany's consumption, which could result in Germany trading at a discount.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €22.14/MWh from €76.37/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €32.25/MWh from €80.33/MWh on the previous day.
  • France was at a €10.11/MWh premium from a €3.96/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to increase to 36.69GW, or a 57% load factor during base load on Saturday, from 33.18GW, or 51% load factor forecasted for Friday. Looking ahead, wind is expected at 33.74GW, or a 52% load factor on 23 Dec (Mon) before dropping to just a 19% load factor the next day – likely steadily supporting power prices over the period.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to decrease to 52.74GW on Saturday and to 51.01GW on Sunday, down from 59.36GW on Friday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to rise to 7.1C on Saturday and to 6C on Sunday, compared with 4.5C on Friday – with temperatures above the seasonal average, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then rise on 23 Dec to be at 55.87GW – which could support delivery costs.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to rise sharply on the day to 9.65GW, or a 48% load factor during base load tomorrow from 6.74GW, or a 34% load factor forecasted for today.
  • Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at 9.44GW on 23 Dec, down from 71% anticipated on 22 Dec – which could raise spot prices on the day coupled with a rise in demand.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to fall to 58.39GW on Saturday, down from 63.58GW on Friday amid mean temperatures in Paris forecast to rise to 8.3C on Saturday and to 6.9C on Sunday up from 4.5C from Friday and above the seasonal average, according to Bloomberg
  • Demand will then rise to 60.99GW on 23 Dec – likely placing some upward pressure on power prices.
  • Nuclear availability in France rose to 83% of capacity as of Friday morning, up from 81% on Thursday, RTE data showed, cited by Reuters.
  • However,  EdF has shortened the outage at its 890MW Dampierre 4 nuclear reactor to 21 December 23:00 CET from 22 December 23:00 CET, latest Remit data show
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A drop in demand and a rebound in wind output heavily impacted the German and French day-ahead contracts. With higher wind load factors in Germany and lower demand, Germany cleared at a wider discount to France compared to the previous session. Looking ahead, German wind is forecasts at a 52% load factor on 23 Dec (Mon), compared to France's 47%, with French demand also exceeding Germany's consumption, which could result in Germany trading at a discount.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €22.14/MWh from €76.37/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €32.25/MWh from €80.33/MWh on the previous day.
  • France was at a €10.11/MWh premium from a €3.96/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to increase to 36.69GW, or a 57% load factor during base load on Saturday, from 33.18GW, or 51% load factor forecasted for Friday. Looking ahead, wind is expected at 33.74GW, or a 52% load factor on 23 Dec (Mon) before dropping to just a 19% load factor the next day – likely steadily supporting power prices over the period.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to decrease to 52.74GW on Saturday and to 51.01GW on Sunday, down from 59.36GW on Friday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to rise to 7.1C on Saturday and to 6C on Sunday, compared with 4.5C on Friday – with temperatures above the seasonal average, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then rise on 23 Dec to be at 55.87GW – which could support delivery costs.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to rise sharply on the day to 9.65GW, or a 48% load factor during base load tomorrow from 6.74GW, or a 34% load factor forecasted for today.
  • Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at 9.44GW on 23 Dec, down from 71% anticipated on 22 Dec – which could raise spot prices on the day coupled with a rise in demand.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to fall to 58.39GW on Saturday, down from 63.58GW on Friday amid mean temperatures in Paris forecast to rise to 8.3C on Saturday and to 6.9C on Sunday up from 4.5C from Friday and above the seasonal average, according to Bloomberg
  • Demand will then rise to 60.99GW on 23 Dec – likely placing some upward pressure on power prices.
  • Nuclear availability in France rose to 83% of capacity as of Friday morning, up from 81% on Thursday, RTE data showed, cited by Reuters.
  • However,  EdF has shortened the outage at its 890MW Dampierre 4 nuclear reactor to 21 December 23:00 CET from 22 December 23:00 CET, latest Remit data show