GERMANY VOTE: FDP Increasingly Likely Merkel Coalition Partner

By Tara Oakes

     BRUSSELS (MNI) - Germany's liberal FDP party are set for a comeback in the

upcoming federal elections, according to the most recent polling data.

     Emnid's survey, conducted between July 20-26 and published Saturday, put

voting intentions for Chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU/CSU coalition at 38%, 14

points ahead of closest rivals the SPD, who have dropped a point to 24% since

the pollster's last indications.

     The eurosceptic AfD have benefited from the SPD's 1% fall and now match the

far-left Die Linke party at 9%, while the Greens remain steady at 8%, the poll

said.

     But all eyes are on the FDP, who on these figures would be set to reenter

the Bundestag after an embarrassing failure to meet the 5% threshold at the last

election. Their figures have climbed steadily since late April, when they were

only just hitting the necessary 5%.

     Merkel's party, despite the clear lead over Martin Schulz's centre-left

rivals, would still need a coalition partner to prop up their government if

voting continues in line with Emnid's estimates.

     Since 2013, the CDU have governed as a "grand coalition" with the SPD. But

historically the FDP have consistently been their coalition partner of choice

where possible: eight of the 18 Bundestag sessions since 1949 have involved the

pair governing together in some form of deal.

     Seat estimates are difficult due to the mixed electoral format used for

Bundestag votes. Germany's electoral system splits seats roughly 50-50 in the

630-member house between direct election in constituencies and a proportional

list. If a party gets at least three directly elected members or 5% of the

national vote they are allocated a proportional number of seats -- something the

FDP missed out on last time for the first time in its history.

     But on current figures a CDU/CSU and FDP coalition is increasingly likely,

as is already the case in Germany's North Rhine-Westphalia regional government.

If the pair together fail to top the 50% mark of seats, the most likely "trio"

of coalition partners could be the so-called "Jamaica" format of CDU-FDP-Greens,

unless the SDP are keen to throw their lot in with Merkel's party for another

"grand coalition" - and, of course, if they are invited to do so.

--MNI Brussels Bureau; +44 203-865-3851; email: tara.oakes@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$E$$$,M$G$$$,M$X$$$,MC$$$$]