Germany ZEW Survey: Details Of Analysts' Economic Sentiment

Release for: July 2018

Survey among 201 analysts between June 25 and July 9, 2018

Source: Center for European Economic Research. ZEW

*Change in Level From Previous Month

                     Good       Normal        Bad         Balance 

                 Level   Chg  Level   Chg  Level   Chg  Level   Chg

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Current economy

Eurozone          38.2  -3.6   59.8   3.5    2.0   0.1   36.2  -3.7

Germany           72.9  -8.2   26.6   8.2    0.5   0.0   72.4  -8.2

United States     79.3  -0.7   20.2   0.7    0.5   0.0   78.8  -0.7

Japan             21.9  -1.1   74.9   1.5    3.2  -0.4   18.7  -0.7

United Kingdom    11.7   1.4   67.6  -6.0   20.7   4.6   -9.0  -3.2

France            23.8  -8.0   71.4   8.8    4.8  -0.8   19.0  -7.2

Italy              4.8  -0.4   60.4   3.6   34.8  -3.2  -30.0   2.8

                        Improve      Unchanged     Worse        Balance

                       Level   Chg  Level   Chg  Level   Chg  Level    Chg

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Economic expectations

Eurozone                13.0  -0.1   55.3  -5.9   31.7   6.0  -18.7   -6.1

Germany                  9.0  -2.2   57.3  -4.2   33.7   6.4  -24.7   -8.6

United States           14.2  -0.5   59.4  -5.3   26.4   5.8  -12.2   -6.3

Japan                    7.1  -5.9   76.1   3.7   16.8   2.2   -9.7   -8.1

United Kingdom           4.2  -1.5   38.0  -7.6   57.8   9.1  -53.6  -10.6

France                  15.4  -0.9   60.8  -4.0   23.8   4.9   -8.4   -5.8

Italy                    8.0   3.8   46.8   3.6   45.2  -7.4  -37.2   11.2

                               Rise       Unchanged     Decline      Balance

                           Level   Chg  Level   Chg  Level    Chg  Level    Chg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CPI

Eurozone                    47.3  -9.1   45.7   7.4    7.0    1.7   40.3  -10.8

Germany                     49.8  -8.0   40.7   5.3    9.5    2.7   40.3  -10.7

United States               69.0   1.8   26.9  -1.0    4.1   -0.8   64.9    2.6

Japan                       20.6  -6.8   76.1   6.2    3.3    0.6   17.3   -7.4

United Kingdom              51.8  -3.8   36.4   1.0   11.8    2.8   40.0   -6.6

France                      47.4  -5.9   47.3   4.7    5.3    1.2   42.1   -7.1

Italy                       48.4  -5.5   44.0   3.7    7.6    1.8   40.8   -7.3

Short-term interest rates

Eurozone                    12.6  -6.3   86.9   6.3    0.5    0.0   12.1   -6.3

United States               85.9   0.6   14.1  -0.1    0.0   -0.5   85.9    1.1

Japan                        5.4  -1.0   94.6   1.5    0.0   -0.5    5.4   -0.5

United Kingdom              41.7  -4.6   54.0   4.0    4.3    0.6   37.4   -5.2

Long-term interest rates

Germany                     66.7   0.3   32.3   1.1    1.0   -1.4   65.7    1.7

United States               75.8   0.0   23.2   0.5    1.0   -0.5   74.8    0.5

Japan                       24.2  -0.7   75.8   2.3    0.0   -1.6   24.2    0.9

United Kingdom              58.0  -2.7   39.8   4.2    2.2   -1.5   55.8   -1.2

Stock market prices

Eurozone                    43.6   1.4   39.9   1.9   16.5   -3.3   27.1    4.7

Germany(DAX)                46.8   3.5   33.5  -2.4   19.7   -1.1   27.1    4.6

Germany(NEMAX50)            46.3   2.6   36.2  -0.8   17.5   -1.8   28.8    4.4

United States               39.3   0.4   38.8   0.0   21.9   -0.4   17.4    0.8

Japan                       32.6   1.4   52.0   1.4   15.4   -2.8   17.2    4.2

United Kingdom              19.9   1.7   49.1   1.4   31.0   -3.1  -11.1    4.8

France                      37.9   4.6   42.6  -3.2   19.5   -1.4   18.4    6.0

Italy                       25.0   7.3   43.0   4.7   32.0  -12.0   -7.0   19.0

                  Appreciation  Unchanged   Depreciation  Balance 

Exchange rates

vs euro(1)        Level   Chg  Level   Chg  Level   Chg  Level   Chg

--------------------------------------------------------------------

US Dollar          48.2  -1.0   35.4   3.9   16.4  -2.9   31.8   1.9

Yen                16.6  -1.8   75.6   4.8    7.8  -3.0    8.8   1.2

British Pound      10.4   0.9   47.0  -1.4   42.6   0.5  -32.2   0.4

Swiss Franc        18.9  -2.6   67.7   4.9   13.4  -2.3    5.5  -0.3

Crude oil prices   17.8  -3.3   57.1   5.4   25.1  -2.1   -7.3  -1.2

                        Improve      Unchanged    Worse         Balance 

                     Level    Chg  Level    Chg  Level   Chg  Level    Chg

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Germany Sectors

Banks                 12.3   -2.0   55.9    3.0   31.8  -1.0  -19.5   -1.0

Insurances            11.2   -4.9   62.9    2.6   25.9   2.3  -14.7   -7.2

Vehicle industry       1.8   -4.5   38.6  -13.1   59.6  17.6  -57.8  -22.1

Chemical ind.         22.0  -11.1   65.5    5.6   12.5   5.5    9.5  -16.6

Steel industry         6.6   -1.5   48.5   -3.0   44.9   4.5  -38.3   -6.0

Electrical ind.       25.0    0.4   61.9   -6.5   13.1   6.1   11.9   -5.7

Machinery ind.        28.4   -2.4   53.3   -3.7   18.3   6.1   10.1   -8.5

Consumer gds/retail   41.4   -4.5   48.5   -1.5   10.1   6.0   31.3  -10.5

Construction          48.5   -3.0   44.4    1.7    7.1   1.3   41.4   -4.3

Utilities             13.7   -2.0   75.1    0.0   11.2   2.0    2.5   -4.0

Service Sector        32.7   -0.8   63.1   -1.6    4.2   2.4   28.5   -3.2

Telecommunication     18.5    0.0   73.7   -0.3    7.8   0.3   10.7   -0.3

Info Technology       53.0   -4.0   42.2    1.6    4.8   2.4   48.2   -6.4

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negative balance indicates an expected depreciation and the currency vs 

the euro. A positive an appreciation

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