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Getting Closer To The Two Further Hikes Powell Suggested

STIR FUTURES
  • A very strong January payrolls report sees Fed Funds implied hikes shift higher to 22.5bp for Mar (+2.5bp since the release), a cumulative 37bp for May and 40bp for Jun terminal at 4.98% (+8bp) before cutting to 4.55% by year-end (+14.5bps).
  • That is the highest sustained terminal since Jan 6 prior to last month’s payrolls and ISM services combination.
  • The 43bp of cuts through 2H23 pushes inversion back to levels shortly before the FOMC having sat around 50bp in the interim.


Source: Bloomberg

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