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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EGBS
Commerzbank note that “the focus will be on tonight's busy rating schedule.” Moody’s scheduled update on Greece (current rating: Ba3; Outlook Positive) presents the highlight there.
- Commerzbank go on to flag that “Moody's found “upward credit pressures” for Greece in a recent report, citing economic, fiscal and banking reforms that are ongoing.”
- “An upgrade from Moody's is thus on the cards, but the three-notch gap to investment grade seems unlikely to be bridged in one step. The next IG ratings could come from S&P on 20 Oct and Fitch on 1 Dec.”
- The country’s fiscal trajectory & the Greek centre-right’s political victory earlier this year have increased focus on Greek rating dynamics.
- A quick reminder that Greece attained IG status at DBRS Morningstar last week, although that is not meaningful for GGBs re: benchmark bond index inclusion.
- General expectations are for index inclusion in early ’24 owing to the aforementioned rating schedule, index inclusion requirements and current distance from IG status at Moody’s.
- 10-Year GGB/Bund and GGB/BTP spreads sit a little above ’23 tights.
Fig. 1: 10-Year GGB/Bund & GGB/BTP Spreads (%)
Source: MNI - Market Nwws/Bloomberg
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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