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GILT TECHS: (Z4) Bear Cycle Extends

GILT TECHS
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisCEEMEABulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionMarkets
  • RES 4: 100.00 High Sep 23
  • RES 3: 99.47 High Oct and key short-term resistance
  • RES 2: 98.33 20-day EMA      
  • RES 1: 96.93/98.11 High Oct 7 / Low Sep 2            
  • PRICE: 96.13 @ Close Oct 10
  • SUP 1: 95.83 Low Oct 10              
  • SUP 2: 95.58 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • SUP 3: 95.47 1.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
  • SUP 4: 94.99 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing

A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present. The Oct 4 impulsive sell-off, and this week’s move lower, reinforces a bearish theme. The contract has traded through support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low and a bear trigger. The break strengthens the downtrend, signalling scope for a deeper retracement. 96.23, projection support, and the 96.00 handle have now given way, exposing the 2.0% 10-dma envelope line at 95.58. Initial firm resistance is seen at 98.11, the Sep 2 low.           

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  • RES 4: 100.00 High Sep 23
  • RES 3: 99.47 High Oct and key short-term resistance
  • RES 2: 98.33 20-day EMA      
  • RES 1: 96.93/98.11 High Oct 7 / Low Sep 2            
  • PRICE: 96.13 @ Close Oct 10
  • SUP 1: 95.83 Low Oct 10              
  • SUP 2: 95.58 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • SUP 3: 95.47 1.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
  • SUP 4: 94.99 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing

A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present. The Oct 4 impulsive sell-off, and this week’s move lower, reinforces a bearish theme. The contract has traded through support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low and a bear trigger. The break strengthens the downtrend, signalling scope for a deeper retracement. 96.23, projection support, and the 96.00 handle have now given way, exposing the 2.0% 10-dma envelope line at 95.58. Initial firm resistance is seen at 98.11, the Sep 2 low.