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GILTS: 10-Year Yield Breaks Below 50-DMA, Outperformance Vs. Bunds

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Gilts have firmed alongside EGBs this morning.

  • French political and fiscal risks continue to dominate, while a downtick in crude oil futures has also factored in.
  • Futures as high as 96.23 in recent trade.
  • Yesterday’s high & Fibonacci resistance (96.03) both broken.
  • Fresh extension higher would target the next Fibonacci level (96.33).
  • Yields 3-5bp lower across the curve, flattening.
  • 10s hit the lowest level seen since October 24 (4.221%).
  • 50-DMA (4.252% at yesterday’s close) broken below for the first time since early October, leaving focus on the 4.20% level.
  • Outperformance vs. Bunds, 10s 4bp tighter at ~210.5bp, spread below recent closing cycle highs at 216.6bp.
  • Beta to post-U.S. holiday Tsy moves noted.
  • SONIA futures flat to +6.0.
  • BoE-dated OIS showing ~80bp of cuts through Dec ’25, sticking to recent ranges. Next full 25bp cut still discounted through March MPC
  • UK headline flow remains muted, which when coupled with a limited domestic calendar, should leave macro and cross-market cues at the fore into the weekend.

BoE Meeting

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Gilts have firmed alongside EGBs this morning.

  • French political and fiscal risks continue to dominate, while a downtick in crude oil futures has also factored in.
  • Futures as high as 96.23 in recent trade.
  • Yesterday’s high & Fibonacci resistance (96.03) both broken.
  • Fresh extension higher would target the next Fibonacci level (96.33).
  • Yields 3-5bp lower across the curve, flattening.
  • 10s hit the lowest level seen since October 24 (4.221%).
  • 50-DMA (4.252% at yesterday’s close) broken below for the first time since early October, leaving focus on the 4.20% level.
  • Outperformance vs. Bunds, 10s 4bp tighter at ~210.5bp, spread below recent closing cycle highs at 216.6bp.
  • Beta to post-U.S. holiday Tsy moves noted.
  • SONIA futures flat to +6.0.
  • BoE-dated OIS showing ~80bp of cuts through Dec ’25, sticking to recent ranges. Next full 25bp cut still discounted through March MPC
  • UK headline flow remains muted, which when coupled with a limited domestic calendar, should leave macro and cross-market cues at the fore into the weekend.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less