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Gilts and GGBs the movers ahead of payrolls

BONDS

Core fixed income is fairly subdued ahead of the US employment report due later today. Treasuries and Bunds trade within yesterday's ranges.

  • Gilts are underperforming on the day, with 10-year yields hitting their highest levels since October 2021, albeit on little new news.
  • Peripheral spreads across the Eurozone are all wider this morning, led by Greek spreads which are 13.2bp wider on the day relative to 10-year Bunds. There doesn't seem to be an obvious driver, with market contacts pointing to potential Greek issuance over the next couple of weeks. This seems like a bit of an outsized move to us, as Greece nearly always issues a new benchmark in January but with low liquidity this seems to be the only obvious driver.
  • Payrolls are, of course, the main event of the day. See our preview here.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-2+ today at 128-19+ with 10y UST yields up 0.3bp at 1.726% and 2y yields up 0.4bp at 0.872%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.03 today at 170.31 with 10y Bund yields up 0.1bp at -0.104% and Schatz yields up 0.4bp at -0.604%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.03 today at 123.24 with 10y yields down -0.4bp at 1.151% and 2y yields down -1.1bp at 0.794%.
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