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Gilts catch up with yesterday's moves

BONDS
  • Gilts have been the biggest movers today, but only because UK markets were closed yesterday; moves have largely been catching up with moves seen yesterday in EGBs. However, moves on the open this morning were extreme for 2-year gilts, with yields hitting a high of 3.06%, up 24bp from Friday's close, before moving in line with the move Schatz yields since Friday's close a few minutes later. At the time of writing 2-year gilt yields are around 13bp higher on the day.
  • The German curve has, however, moved away from the gilt curve since early trading as there have been a few relatively weak German state CPI prints - which are pointing to a downside surprise for today's national CPI print. The German curve has bull flattened today, and dragged the UST curve to bull flatten also.
  • Looking ahead we continue to have a number of ECB speakers (Vasle, Holzmann, Stournaras, Wunsch) as well as the Fed's Barkin and Williams. Whilst on the data calendar in addition to the national German inflation print, we have US Conference Board consumer confidence, JOLTS and US housing data.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-11+ today at 117-12+ with 10y UST yields down -4.0bp at 3.065% and 2y yields down -1.4bp at 3.412%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.22 today at 148.83 with 10y Bund yields down -2.9bp at 1.471% and Schatz yields down -1.6bp at 1.066%.
  • Gilt futures are down -1.28 today at 108.95 with 10y yields up 11.2bp at 2.712% and 2y yields up 12.1bp at 2.921%.
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