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GILTS: Early Rally Holds

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionMarkets

Gilts rally alongside core global FI markets 

  • Dovish press articles and comments from ex-central bankers covering next week’s Fed decision have increased market-implied odds of a 50bp cut at that meeting, supporting bonds.
  • Futures stick within yesterday’s range, last +21 at 101.16.
  • Technicals in the contract remain bullish. Initial resistance at yesterday’s high (101.51), with support at the Sep 10 high (100.64).
  • Yields ~2bp lower across the curve.
  • SONIA futures flat to +4.0, just off session highs.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~48.5bp of cuts through year-end and ~135bp of cuts through mid-’24.
  • Outcomes within the BoE/Ipsos inflation attitudes were mixed (0.1ppt lower 1 year out, 0.1ppt higher for longer-run), with little feedthrough into markets, as to be expected.
  • Wider cross-market moves and broader headline flow will dictate ahead of the weekend, with the UK calendar essentially empty.
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Gilts rally alongside core global FI markets 

  • Dovish press articles and comments from ex-central bankers covering next week’s Fed decision have increased market-implied odds of a 50bp cut at that meeting, supporting bonds.
  • Futures stick within yesterday’s range, last +21 at 101.16.
  • Technicals in the contract remain bullish. Initial resistance at yesterday’s high (101.51), with support at the Sep 10 high (100.64).
  • Yields ~2bp lower across the curve.
  • SONIA futures flat to +4.0, just off session highs.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~48.5bp of cuts through year-end and ~135bp of cuts through mid-’24.
  • Outcomes within the BoE/Ipsos inflation attitudes were mixed (0.1ppt lower 1 year out, 0.1ppt higher for longer-run), with little feedthrough into markets, as to be expected.
  • Wider cross-market moves and broader headline flow will dictate ahead of the weekend, with the UK calendar essentially empty.