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GILTS: Gilt/Bund Spread Threatens Clean Break Above ’24 Highs

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Gilt/Bunds threatening a clean break above cycle closing highs, last 215.9bp.

  • Fresh extension higher would switch focus to the mini-Budget ’22 closing high of 227.5bp.
  • Recent widening promoted by downbeat European data flow and pricing of more forceful ECB easing vs. the BoE’s gradualist approach and stickier inflation outlook in the UK.
  • UK fiscal policy also a factor, as are relative betas to U.S. Tsys.

Fig. 1: 10-Year Gilt/Bund Spread (bp)

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Gilt/Bunds threatening a clean break above cycle closing highs, last 215.9bp.

  • Fresh extension higher would switch focus to the mini-Budget ’22 closing high of 227.5bp.
  • Recent widening promoted by downbeat European data flow and pricing of more forceful ECB easing vs. the BoE’s gradualist approach and stickier inflation outlook in the UK.
  • UK fiscal policy also a factor, as are relative betas to U.S. Tsys.

Fig. 1: 10-Year Gilt/Bund Spread (bp)

Keep reading...Show less