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GILTS: Lower As Oil Recovers

GILTS

A recovery from lows in crude oil and swings in EGBs have factored into early London trade, leaving gilt futures -19 at 95.23 vs. recent session lows of 95.20.

  • Short-term bullish cycle remains in play in the contract, although the structural technical trend remains bearish.
  • Initial support at the November 25 low (94.66) some distance away.
  • Yields 3-4bp higher, 10s now lead the sell off after initially hitting the lowest level of the month (4.28%), last 4.33%.
  • SONIA futures flat to -1.5, unwinding the post-settlement/opening rally.
  • BoE-dated OIS still fully discounts the next 25bp cut come the end of the March MPC and 73bp of cuts through ’25.
  • Little of note on the UK calendar today, which will leave most of the focus on spillover from European data (CPI readings), ECB speak and French fiscal/political matters.
  • A reminder that the U.S. observes the Thanksgiving holiday today, thinning out broader market liquidity.

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A recovery from lows in crude oil and swings in EGBs have factored into early London trade, leaving gilt futures -19 at 95.23 vs. recent session lows of 95.20.

  • Short-term bullish cycle remains in play in the contract, although the structural technical trend remains bearish.
  • Initial support at the November 25 low (94.66) some distance away.
  • Yields 3-4bp higher, 10s now lead the sell off after initially hitting the lowest level of the month (4.28%), last 4.33%.
  • SONIA futures flat to -1.5, unwinding the post-settlement/opening rally.
  • BoE-dated OIS still fully discounts the next 25bp cut come the end of the March MPC and 73bp of cuts through ’25.
  • Little of note on the UK calendar today, which will leave most of the focus on spillover from European data (CPI readings), ECB speak and French fiscal/political matters.
  • A reminder that the U.S. observes the Thanksgiving holiday today, thinning out broader market liquidity.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less