November 28, 2024 10:43 GMT
GILTS: Lower As Oil Recovers
GILTS
A recovery from lows in crude oil and swings in EGBs have factored into early London trade, leaving gilt futures -19 at 95.23 vs. recent session lows of 95.20.
- Short-term bullish cycle remains in play in the contract, although the structural technical trend remains bearish.
- Initial support at the November 25 low (94.66) some distance away.
- Yields 3-4bp higher, 10s now lead the sell off after initially hitting the lowest level of the month (4.28%), last 4.33%.
- SONIA futures flat to -1.5, unwinding the post-settlement/opening rally.
- BoE-dated OIS still fully discounts the next 25bp cut come the end of the March MPC and 73bp of cuts through ’25.
- Little of note on the UK calendar today, which will leave most of the focus on spillover from European data (CPI readings), ECB speak and French fiscal/political matters.
- A reminder that the U.S. observes the Thanksgiving holiday today, thinning out broader market liquidity.
BoE Meeting |
SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)
Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Dec-24
4.685
-1.5
Feb-25
4.493
-20.7
Mar-25
4.410
-29.0
May-25
4.260
-44.0
Jun-25
4.190
-51.0
Aug-25
4.093
-60.7
Sep-25
4.055
-64.5
Nov-25
3.995
-70.5
Dec-25
3.969
-73.1
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