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GILTS: Off Early Lows As Equities Falter

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Gilts lower at the open but recovering from early lows at typing as equity futures move away from session highs.

  • Trump’s tariff threats against China, Mexico and Canada adds some inflation risk premium.
  • This comes after Trump’s pick for Tsy Secretary (Bessent) removed some inflationary worry on Monday.
  • Futures -13 at 95.03, off initial lows of 94.84.
  • Initial support & resistance at yesterday’s range boundaries (94.58/95.35), corrective bullish cycle remains in play within bearish trend.
  • Yields 0.5bp higher across the curve, 2bp off opening highs.
  • 10-Year yields hit the lowest level seen since late October yesterday, printing 4.316%.
  • The benchmark stabilised around the October 29 level that we flagged ahead of time (4.317%), before retaking 4.35% this morning. Yesterday’s low (4.316%) presents the next downside level of interest.
  • Late Monday saw Chancellor Reeves suggest that the Budget will be good for growth and jobs.
  • BRC shop price index -0.6% Y/Y, matching expectations, not a market mover.
  • Comments from BoE’s Pill are due later (15:00 London), with lower tier CBI data also scheduled.
  • We remain on the lookout for the 1.25% Nov-54 Linker syndicated tap.
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Gilts lower at the open but recovering from early lows at typing as equity futures move away from session highs.

  • Trump’s tariff threats against China, Mexico and Canada adds some inflation risk premium.
  • This comes after Trump’s pick for Tsy Secretary (Bessent) removed some inflationary worry on Monday.
  • Futures -13 at 95.03, off initial lows of 94.84.
  • Initial support & resistance at yesterday’s range boundaries (94.58/95.35), corrective bullish cycle remains in play within bearish trend.
  • Yields 0.5bp higher across the curve, 2bp off opening highs.
  • 10-Year yields hit the lowest level seen since late October yesterday, printing 4.316%.
  • The benchmark stabilised around the October 29 level that we flagged ahead of time (4.317%), before retaking 4.35% this morning. Yesterday’s low (4.316%) presents the next downside level of interest.
  • Late Monday saw Chancellor Reeves suggest that the Budget will be good for growth and jobs.
  • BRC shop price index -0.6% Y/Y, matching expectations, not a market mover.
  • Comments from BoE’s Pill are due later (15:00 London), with lower tier CBI data also scheduled.
  • We remain on the lookout for the 1.25% Nov-54 Linker syndicated tap.